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Texas is an exceedingly difficult place to run a statewide campaign. Not only is it geographically large and prohibitively expensive for media buys, but its regions are very different and often very diverse, making a statewide campaign more like a nationwide campaign — how appropriate for a state that used to be a nation. To understand this nation-state in which Hillary (I use “Hillary” and “Bubba” to avoid possible ambiguity from using “Clinton” and intend no insult) is being outspent between two or three to one, I highly suggest reading Mary Mape’s spectacular explanation of Texas. To stymie Obama, someone released a picture of him in another country’s traditional dress. I’m surprised both that Hillary has not more strongly repudiated the rumors of Obama’s religion beyond “as far as I know” and that Obama hasn’t spread a picture of him in slightly more familiar traditional dress:
Some Republicans will vote in the Democratic primary, and maybe even caucus. Many Republicans won’t cross over and vote for one of the good guys because they’ll lose the opportunity to vote in other important contests like the race in TX-22 between the terrible ten, some Republicans, however, will cross over. These voters are predicted to be more Obama Republicans, but do they act out of admiration for Obama or hate for Clinton? MSNBC suggests the Republican crossover vote could be up to nine percent and Kuff analyzes the possible Republican shenanigans. The nominee needs to keep these voters in November and the other candidates need to convince them to stay D down ballot.
Hillary and Obama agree on most issues. Manned space flight is one issue on which they disagree; Hillary absolutely owns the correct side of the issue. I find this amazing when Obama has a campaign office (the web site is incorrect, a FM has a number like a state highway or interstate) less than three miles from JSC. I think it’s spectacular Obama has offices in the suburbs; he also has one in Sugar Land. Obama also has an office almost on UT’s campus at Dobie, a private dorm across the street from UT with a movie theater, food court, and some retail. It’s also a block from a great pho restaurant and some good milk tea.
It’s also a few blocks from where the big debate was held. 7.6 million watched the debate on CNN and nearly three quarters of a million watching the streaming feed from CNN.com, setting its record. One of KXAN’s reporters provided a fascinating description from inside the Recreation Sports Center, or you can read the excellent debate wrap up from The New York Times. The UT student body is energized, probably helped in large part by the debate’s location. 600 UT students were turned away from a debate watch party due to capacity controls. Among many quotes, we learned both candidates are against “El Muro de La Muerte.” So who won? Austin.
Hillary has Obama beat on Asian American outreach – she has an office in Houston’s Chinatown, which is actually more Vietnamese than Chinese. Not only does Hillary have a campaign office in Chinatown, she also has the backing of prominent Asian American politicians in Texas. While Obama has our very own Phil Shinoda, Clinton has Austin City Councilwoman Jennifer Kim and former Houston Mayor Pro-Tempore Gordon Quan. Quan represented Hillary in a debate held by the Asian American Democrats of Texas; Bob Gee, former Assistant Secretary of Energy, represented Obama. The debate is up on YouTube. The popular vote should be close, and Asian Americans may prove to be the margin of victory. Or the media could crown another group such as Texas women, Katrina evacuees, Latinos — young or in general — the decisive factor for Hillary or Obama.
Although Hillary is on the correct side of manned space flight, she is wrong on a much bigger issue — if Texas matters. Hillary says Texas doesn’t matter. Kos is not happy. KT observes that Bubba’s rhetoric indicates Texas could both matter and not matter simultaneously. And I thought one of the reasons I got into politics was to avoid quantum states!
Obama’s office locations, especially in heavily Republican suburbs and right next to UT, indicate he thinks Texas matters. What’s more, he has powerful allies in Texas such as Jim Hightower. Obama even has Samuel L. Jackson, which makes me wish Huckabee would be the Republican nominee. Let’s be honest, I’m not the only one who wants to see Samuel L. Jackson take on Chuck Norris.
Since I’ve been back in Houston, we’ve received three Hillary robocalls, but none for Obama. We also received one from The One In Pink. One Hillary call was a GOTV&C recorded by Hillary, another recorded by Bubba, and the other was to promote a rally Sunday with Bubba. I received a personal call from a volunteer on a mobile phone with a Chicagoland area code. I prefer the personal touch, if the volunteer is good on the phone. The One In Pink again demonstrated her poor campaign planning. While we live in the same precinct, she is very poorly mistaken if she thinks consistent Democratic voters are going to abandon the Hillary/Obama decision and vote in the Republican primary.
Many complain about the Texas Delegate Selection Plan, which the national party approved. As explained in Burnt Orange Report’s MEGA FAQ, it’s a two-step process, which many have dubbed the “Texas Two-Step” even though it’s not the dance I learned in my ballroom class at UT.
There may be problems not unlike toes being stepped upon. An undisclosed library did not begin to think to prepare until less than a week before the 4th. How many caucus locations around the state will be woefully undersized and underprepared?
Speaking of unprepared, Hillary seems to have not known how Texas selects its delegates even though the national party approved the plan months and months ago. Perhaps this is why her campaign appears to be planning some caucus shenanigans. What’s more, her campaign may sue the Texas Democratic Party. Sadly, this threat may be simply to buy Hillary’s campaign another news cycle. I can’t find this outside of comments in various web logs, but Hillary’s campaign appears to want to prevent some people from caucusing by locking the doors at 7:15. This would keep out capacity overflow and people who are still in line waiting to vote. Disenfranchising voters sounds like a Republican tactic to me. I suppose Kos is right, desperate times call for desperate measures.
Delaying the new cycle will just delay reporting of Hillary’s predicted loss in Texas. Asian Americans For Obama explains some about Asian Americans in Texas. They fail to note SD 7 elected an Asian American to the State Democratic Executive Committee. While Hillary’s campaign may prevent people from participating in the caucus, it’s a Class C Misdemeanor for one’s employer to do so.
So how do you operate a caucus? The Bexar County Democratic Party has an excellent guide, which should be mandatory reading. If you have a resolution you want to move through the Party, be sure to know what to do with the resolution at the precinct convention. If you still don’t understand what’s supposed to go on Tuesday night, Burnt Orange Report has a good explanation (part 1, part 2). And remember, there’s no such thing as the Texas Primary (part 1, part 2).
If you’re still confused, just remember what this ridiculous cartoon from the Wall Street Journal, which the Houston Chronicle didn’t know about when publishing a story about the media shying away from the cowboy stereotype, teaches us: Show up, vote, take off your hat, go past the cactus, check on your horse, caucus:
Hillary and Obama, not to mention many of their surrogates, are crisscrossing Texas now, but will the candidate be back for the general? If the candidate is Hillary, she won’t. Obama will.
- Justin Gillenwater
Update: Republicans are scared, and for good reason — Texas is in play in November.
